Thursday, September 17, 2009

Summer's Final Fling

The weather lately has been gorgeous, warm and sunny and not even too windy. I've been trying to make the most of it - running, cycling, having coffee where I can sit outside. It's supposed to get up to 30c today!

Of course, it is the middle of September and the days are getting shorter, the leaves are starting to fall, and the Canada geese are congregating.

Although our winters are harsh, I still love the cycle of seasons we have here. If you compared winter to summer you'd think it was two different places entirely.

1 comment:

  1. Autumn, a gentler word than Fall, is with us in England. My little apple-tree which I transplanted and have been tending with care is bearing twelve apples, mostly large and quite red but still firmly attached to the tree.

    There were only three apples last year so may I expect 48 next year if the crop expends geometrically or might it even be exponential?

    Curve fitting in prediction is a game. You can do it with climate prediction too. Modelling without replication - seeing if the model works in different circumstances - is easy but dangerous. Any (almost)series may be modelled to any degree of exactness by a polynomial of sufficient degree. There somebody's theorem on this.

    I can see if my apple crop model works on other trees but not a climate change model. That depends on theoretical assumptions not computing.

    The days are shortening rapidly as the Equinox approaches. Dorset is further from the Pole (50.71N) than Saskatoon (52.15N) so you find the effect more strongly.

    Happily day-time winter temperatures near the south coast here seldom fall below zero during the winter. There have been dark suggestions that the Gulf Stream may in future change its direction and we should then freeze.

    I was on a long-haul flight and I looked at the screen which shows the world divided between light and dark zones, usually separated by an S-shaped curve. This time though the curve was a straight vertical line. I thought there was an error until I realised I was travelling at the Equinox. Subtle.

    In winter England and I suppose many similar latitudes look unlike other parts of the world. There are in winter bright green lush countries, there are desert brown countries, there are white snowy countries. England is green but with brown trees and hedges. The doors and window frames swell in winter and shrink in summer.

    I cannot add images to a comment (can I?) so I must update my own blog instead of adding irrelevant comments.

    J. A. B.